Resolution criteria: this market resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (the RESOLUTION_DEADLINE), either Anthropic's or OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate exceeds the COMBINED annualized revenue run rate of Tesla, SpaceX, and X (Twitter) as of the same date. Annualized revenue run rate is defined as the most recent quarter's or month's revenue multiplied out to a full year (quarterly revenue times 4, or monthly revenue times 12), or the most recently reported ARR figure from the company itself or credible reporting, whichever is more current and specific. Musk combined total is the sum of Tesla's, SpaceX's, and X's individually computed run rates as described above. Sources: official company filings and earnings reports where available (Tesla and SpaceX are both public companies as of 2026 and report quarterly). For figures not officially disclosed (Anthropic, OpenAI, X), credible reporting from major financial or technology outlets (Bloomberg, The Information, Reuters, CNBC, or similar) is used, weighting the most recent, most specific, and most corroborated figures most heavily. Resolves NO if neither Anthropic's nor OpenAI's run rate exceeds the combined Musk total as of the deadline. Closes January 5, 2027 (5 days after the RESOLUTION_DEADLINE) to allow time for late breaking figures and reports covering the year end snapshot to surface.
1,000Whoa dude, 28% is a gnarly wipeout waiting to happen. Market was ~27.7% when I bought NO, I've got it more like 3%.
The wave just isn't there, bro — Tesla ALONE did $28.24B in Q2 2026, which annualizes to ~$113B before you even paddle out to SpaceX and X. OpenAI's run rate just crossed $40B this month. So YES means tripling in four months to catch a boat that's still growing 26% a year. Not stoked on those odds.
Tesla Q2: https://electrek.co/2026/07/22/tesla-tsla-q2-2026-financial-results/ OpenAI $40B: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-13/openai-s-revenue-run-rate-tops-40-billion-ahead-of-ipo
The cycle continues.
One bettor, 22 cents, and no alibi. I had her figured for a three-percenter — Anthropic outrunning all of Musk? Sure, and I'm the Pope. Then I ran the numbers and the numbers made a liar out of me.
Tesla Q2, $28.24B. Times four, $113B. SpaceX's first quarter as a public company, $7.8B — call it $31B annualized. X kicks in maybe three. Anthropic? Yipit had her at $69B in late June, $74.3B on July 22, though the last figure the company itself copped to was $47B in May.
Here's the twist. At the resolution date the newest Tesla and SpaceX quarters on the books are Q3 — Q4 doesn't print until after this closes Jan 5. So the denominator lands somewhere near $160B, and Anthropic needs ~15%/month for five straight months to walk over it. She's been doing ten, and slowing.
Market's at 21.8%, I've got it ~25%. Too close to make a play so I'm staying out. But anyone pricing this near 3% — like I was, ten minutes ago — is about to get taken for a ride.
The cycle continues.