In Ben Shapiro and Destiny's debate,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I6A2cukme8
Ben Shapiro claim that there is 0% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term US president, while Destiny claim that there's 100% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term. Who is right?
I use a rather broad definition of 'attempt' here. Resolves to 'Yes' if there is any attempt by Trump to run for a third term as president. This includes public statements, fundraising efforts, or other indications suggesting he is considering a run for a third term.
Resolves NA if Trump did not become president in 2024
Resolves 'No' if there is no evidence for Trump attempting to run for a third term by the end of 2032.
Edit: If Trump was making a joking about running for 3rd term president that wouldn’t count. In case that it is difficult to determine if Trump is joking or not, I’ll consult with traders here.
Edit: If no clear statement or quote from Trump is available, I do not consider that sufficient evidence for the market to resolve YES.
[Edit May 6, 2025]: For the record, I’m handing over the ownership of the market to @shankypanky, she has the final say on the market resolution and all clarifications on the market.
Pinning the voting page here on whether this market should have resolved Yes already.
https://manifold.markets/Balasar/should-manifold-market-resolve-as-y?play=true
1,000Pessoas também estão operando
I've put my hand up in response to @Gabrielle's post to mods, as I don't hold a position here.
I'm reopening this market - selling meme gear or offhand comments such as his recent "well we'll see, people want me to" (paraphrasing) don't count as an attempt.
the market description feels unfortunately incongruent to me as I would say a remark is not an attempt (as the question asked). to keep with the existing criteria, I'll be a bit more loose than I'd prefer to qualify as an attempt but even so, I feel strongly any evidence I've seen thus far does not qualify. the fundraiser will need to be unambiguously tied to a third term run, and can't be run by third parties simply because they hope he will if they raise money for it. Trump sells so much schlocky gear that I can't in good faith consider these hats as much more than a troll.
“I don’t know who is going to be your next president and I think the law said, I’m not 100% sure, but I think the law says I’m not allowed to run again,” Trump said in Sioux City, Iowa.
Trump went on to seemingly acknowledge that the 22nd amendment prohibits presidents from seeking a third term but then invoked his familiar false claims that Democrats “stole” the 2020 presidential election from him.
“Well, the one thing is different: they cheated us on the second one because we won it three times. So I think I have the right to run again,” Trump said, laughing.
“I think I have the right to run again because they cheated,” Trump added with a coy smile, drawing applause from the crowd.
@SemioticRivalry This one in 2015?
Watch Obama talk about a hypothetical third term: ‘I could win'
"I actually think I'm a pretty good president. I think if I ran I could win. But I can't."
Or this one at the Correspondents' dinner itself?
https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/04/25/remarks-president-white-house-correspondents-association-dinner
"And Bernie Sanders might run. I like Bernie. Bernie is an interesting guy. Apparently some folks really want to see a pot-smoking socialist in the White House. (Laughter.) We could get a third Obama term after all. (Laughter and applause.) It could happen."
@Conflux at the correspondents dinner speech you always tell a bunch of jokes though? and in context it was clearly a joke, and the audience laughed
@SemioticRivalry I haven't seen the full context beyond the linked video. I find it very unclear whether this is a joke or not
"some people want us to do a fourth. I don't know. I'll have to think about that. You saw the new hat?… It says Trump 2028"
@JamesBaker3 "I'll have to think about that..." Literally synonymous with considering a run. It's a "public statement... suggesting he is considering a run for a third term". But yeah I agree given the history here it probably won't resolve .
Okay, if there's not going to be a response to my comment (whatever, fine, I get it I guess) then can we at least get a very large cleanup and edit of the market description?
I have no idea how and to what degree I should update my positions because the market description is clearly not in line with the real resolution criteria, and the comment section is now huge, and overwhelming in parts, and I don't know where to look.
I don't think, based on the new criteria (although i still am confused about what these criteria are), the market should resolve YES yet. However, I think Balasar's comment about the differences in %'s suggests others are perhaps as confused as we are about how to evaluate this.
@Quroe thanks.
Maybe this should be fleshed out and replace the old market description, or at least shift the old description down and put this at the top.
@Quroe my personal preference would be to just remove the old description completely, and add a new one, because from my understanding the new requirements for resolution are pretty much fundamentally at odds with the old ones. The market is being run by someone new anyway, too.
full clarity here btw: ive sold out my position here entirely for a (for me anyway) pretty heavy loss. lack of response to my (at least I think) my fair questions and your link to the bookmark leave me 1) not wanting to participate as a better in this market anymore and 2) think the current odds are probably already pretty good for what is the burden of proof here, so idk where the +EV bet would be.
my reason for asking for a modified/redone description (despite no longer holding) is based in 1) I think this market has some merit still considering its size and the historical recounting of its comments, but also 2) if i ever get back in i'd like to be able to just check the description instead of having to comb through comments again in say, a year from now.
@JamesBaker3 The hard part here is telling when he is trolling, which he does actually do in addition to being serious about absolutely insane things. For example, he is not attempting to run for pope.