BTW I inform my decision to bet based on vibes and "if there were 1000 Aellas, would the number of them who convert to Christianity in any 2 year span be higher or lower than 17?"

(Current Yes probability is 1.7%)

BTW @Aella if you read this, I'm a big fan of your statistical work in under researched areas.

Whenever I have more mana than I know what to do with, at least there's this market.

Dear Aella,

You’re facing a moment that many won’t understand — a moment of spiritual pressure disguised as public commentary, speculation, or even “concern.”

But I want to tell you this, plainly and with full respect:

If you’ve chosen to walk away from someone whose influence has felt toxic, condescending, or manipulative — stay with that choice. That was an act of self-respect, not weakness. Choosing to remove a harmful substance from your life is not failure. It’s healing.

Whatever spiritual path you take (or don’t), let it come from you — from a place of clarity, integrity, and deep internal alignment. Not from pressure, spectacle, or someone else’s timeline.

Don’t let anyone confuse your exploration of belief with a bet they’re placing on your soul.

Don’t let someone else’s rigid standards define the validity of your transformation.

Most importantly: separate your faith from the personality cult that may have wrapped itself around it. You don’t owe anyone a performance of repentance. You don’t owe anyone submission.

Define your own standards. Live by them. Let your beliefs flow from that clarity — not the other way around.

You are not lost. You are in motion. And that’s not a crisis — it’s growth.

With trust in your ability to find your own way,

Tommaso

Ok so hear me out @Aella

Define “convert to”. Hell, define “Christianity”.

Justin Murphy seems like the kind of person who would get more offended if you converted to the wrong flavor of his preferred religion. A “oh, it’s not true christianity if you haven’t stopped sleeping around >:(“ kinda guy who needs to be more worried about the log in his eye.

Likewise, you don’t need to /stay/ Christian.

You have the opportunity to do something really funny. Place a bet “yes”, claim hundreds of thousands of internet points by coming out as Christian for a day, make Justin seethe, and then carry on.

Is this a betrayal of both your stated values and character, as well as an insincere reflection of the true redemptive nature of fostering genuine relationship with Jesus Christ? Perhaps. But I’m making a yes bet because I see the temptation that you’ll take a profitable version of Pascal’s Wager more likely than 4%.

Good luck and have fun :)

Do you have to be a true believer for this to resolve yes?

If the government declassifies that an infinite number of intermentional beings exist and that all the religions were based on real things but a lot got lost in translation and that this new awareness is what was meant by revelations, how will this resolve?

@Krantz Nothing you described has any bearing on this question.

quoting CS Lewis!!

Religion is so absurd.

This should be tagged personal

@JustinMurphy Please do that again.

Do what? First time playing with this site. I understand betting markets but I don't fully grok the mechanisms and conventions on here...

Welcome!

If you make a large bet that moves the market by a large amount, you get much worse returns than if you only make bets that keep the market low (and in the case of your previous bet, the people betting against you got great returns).

The bid/ask is wide and in an illiquid market

Gotcha. It was just $30 so I didn't bother to look.

lol the trading on this is wild

I mostly just wanted to get it done because I said I would. I am not betting the farm...

I haven’t put any real dollars into this website so…

That said, I think you’re right about this market and 20:1 odds seems great

@JustinMurphy hey! I'll do a bigger bet than that if you want.

@JustinMurphy I put an order for 100k no at 50% and at 75%. we can talk about price if you want, and i could do bigger trades than that to, but I'd have to sell some other stuff first

I haven't really grokked how the markets get made exactly. I'm not super high conviction on this lol, enough to float the thesis and put a little on it...

While researching for this question, I came across this interesting snippet in a 2022 report from the Pew Research Center.

Most people don’t change their religious identity. But among those who do, the switch typically happens between the ages of 15 and 29. That is why this report focuses on switching among young Americans.

However, since the rise of the “nones” began in the 1990s, a pattern has emerged in which a measurable share of adults ages 30 to 65 also disaffiliate from Christianity. [...]

[...] Switching by religiously unaffiliated, older Americans into Christianity is not modeled in the projections because there is no clear trend in this direction.

I would like to collect the mana of YES holders sooner rather than later, so I created /HankyUSA/will-aella-convert-to-sexually-cons.

The timing makes this market more attractive on the YES side

Do you believe there is a 1% probability that Aella converts to sexually conservative Christianity before the end of 2027 and a 5% probability before the end of 2028? If so, what's so special about 2028?

Idk I think you’re being too precise. The longer the period, the higher the odds

Yeah, the farther the deadline the higher the probability of the event occuring before the deadline. I didn't expect you to bet the other years up to 5%, but 1% for 2027 and 5% for 2028 looks strange. It's odd for the markets to conclude so much of the probability density is concentrated in 2028.

My sense of honesty compels me to remind you that I think you're wrong about this question and am encouraging you to make similarly bad bets on the other question so I can profit more off you even sooner.

Oh is there a 2027 market ? I was not aware. I still generally think comparing like 1 vs 5 % is over precise

My comment that started this thread linked to a question that is effectively the same question but for each year from 2024 through 2027. /HankyUSA/will-aella-convert-to-sexually-cons

Okay. Perhaps I am being overly precise. The amount I've bet on this definitely has me giving it more attention than other traders probably care to give it.

Oh lol I learned a little bit about the Less Wrong blog, rationality, polyamory, etc. and it’s comically immature. It’s also a cult. This bet is obviously going to read out positively, given enough time, as cults are inherently unstable. The biggest risk to this market is that it occurs in 2029+, but like, ~4 years is a long time.

But putting aside this market, read a bit more about this ‘rationality’ philosophy. It’s hilarious.