New wave of mobilisation of personnel as rumoured by some telegram channels. Must be called "mobilisation" by the Russian government (possibly with extra adjectives") OR use the same lagal structure a general mobilization would use as it's main legal background.
This market resolves purely based on announcements/admissions by the Russian government.
I will not trade. Updates to criteria based on feedback welcome in the first 7 days of the question.
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I hear a lot of talk that a new mobilization may be silent. The mobilization decree of 2022 was never formally ended, so legally no new mobilization would need to be publically declared. How will you resolve in that scenario? What do you consider an 'admission' of mobilization by the Russian government? What if it happens through the same methods we've already been seeing? i.e. more forceful recruiting through universities and workplaces?
A partial mobilization has already been ordered years ago, no? So under the current rules this should be resolved yes.
As far as I looked into this, Russia is keeping their conscription and mobilization policy intentionally vague, so I think it might be difficult to make clear rules for resolving this market.
@JohansyOpn This is intended to capture a new wave of mobilisation as rumored. I.e. must happen after question creation. Agree that there can be difficult edge cases, but I find it likely that things will be relatively clear cut.