I thought this might be a helpful update. Here is there most recent update: https://open.substack.com/pub/aifutures1/p/ai-futures-model-dec-2025-update?r=6lp84s&utm_medium=ios. Daniel and Eli think that the scenario as laid out will basically be the same except that it will happen a few years later. Daniel pointed out that things appear to be 1 year behind the original scenario. As of right now Daniel thinks things will start to unfold in 2029 while Eli thinks things will start to unfold in 2030.

Define AGI as artificial general intelligence, or an AI that is generally intelligent, available, and can learn.

@2sDefine "generally intelligent"