Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if either of the following conditions occurs on or before 11:59 PM ET on April 15, 2026:
Ceasefire Agreement: A formal or publicly acknowledged ceasefire agreement is reached between the United States and Iran. Resolution requires reporting from reputable international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, or major credible publications like The New York Times or Wall Street Journal) confirming that both parties have agreed to cease hostilities.
Nuclear Weapon Use: A nuclear weapon is detonated by any party within the context of the ongoing US-Iran war. This includes any nuclear device explosion attributed to the United States, Israel, or Iran in the theater of conflict.
If neither of these conditions is met by the specified time, the market will resolve to NO.
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@100Anonymous Reuters, AP News, and BBC are all reporting a ceasefire. The details are still murky, but I think this meets the broad resolution criteria of a "publicly acknowledged ceasefire agreement" where both parties have "agreed to cease hostilities." However, while it seems Iran has agreed to cease hostilities, it seems like they have agreed to do so soon rather than immediately, as they are still sending missiles? IMO based on the resolution criteria this should just resolve YES because an agreement has been reached, but I'm not sure if you want to wait until things settle more in case the agreement falls apart before it ever takes effect (although IMO in this case technically the agreement would still have been made, fufilling the resolution criteria, but maybe not the spirit of the market).
@100Anonymous I think it should be resolved regardless? The market is for the agreement being reached, not that it is held for a certain number of days. Both the US and Iran acknowledged the agreement which includes agreeing to create hostilities.