Resolves to my subjective probability of it providing net benefit to my overall goals in expectation in the counterfactual to [the counterfactual where i don't experience it] where the answer is watched at a random time during times where i would have counterfactually have chosen to experience similar media after resolution time with a uniform distribution between Aug 10 and Sep 8 inclusive.

The duration is important here, since the counterfactual would fill up the time with other stories of the same duration. I estimate sum of (probabilities × time spent) = 50-150 hours (total amount of time i will likely spend on these).

Resolution will occur at the resolution date. I will N/A all answers that I do not experience before the resolution date. I will participate in this market but will not misrepresent my probabilities.

Media I experienced (will update as time goes on):
- terra ignota series: Likely provides benefit unless there is a shorter story/etc with the same effect, since it is quite long. Helped with resolve
- hololive dreams: Negative benefit including time spent