Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, Yandex officially confirms or reputable media outlets report that stored user data (e.g., files, databases, or account records on Yandex Disk, Yandex Cloud, Yandex Mail, or related services) was irreversibly lost, permanently deleted, or unrecoverably corrupted as a result of hardware destruction, facility damage, cyberattacks, or technical failure.
This market resolves NO if disruptions consist only of temporary unavailability, API/gateway timeouts, or service restrictions where data is retained or successfully restored from backups by the cutoff date.
Resolution will be verified using official Yandex statements, incident reports published on Yandex Cloud Status, or reporting from established news sources.
Background
In October 2026, three of Yandex's primary Russian data centers—located in Sasovo, Kaluga, and Vladimir—were damaged in a series of Ukrainian drone strikes, forcing complete or partial shutdowns across affected facilities. The strikes led to widespread service outages across Yandex Cloud, Yandex Disk, payment gateways, and third-party applications relying on Yandex infrastructure. While users experienced temporary retrieval failures and HTTP gateway errors, initial company updates did not confirm permanent data loss. Replacing damaged hardware is expected to take up to six months.
Due to a degree of subjectivity in resolution criteria I will not trade in this market.
Update 2026-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): To resolve as YES, confirmed final data loss is required (speculation or statements on likelihood do not count). Confirmation must come from:
Official statements from Yandex
Court proceedings
Credible reports identifying specific named users (individuals or organizations) who irreversibly lost data
See also:
https://manifold.markets/Egor/will-vk-vkontakte-mailru-group-irre
1,000What standard will you use for confirmation? Yandex says it is still assessing the infrastructure (https://yandex.ru/company/news/09-10-2026-01). NSN’s October 12 interview quotes analyst Eldar Murtazin saying missing or damaged Disk files most likely will not be recovered (https://nsn.fm/nauka-i-tehnologii/dannye-sterty-servisy-upali-ekonomiya-yandeksa-na-zaschite-obernulas-katastrofoi-dlya-runeta). Would that reported prediction qualify, or would YES require an official statement or verified reporting that at least some user data is irretrievably lost? I have no position.
@jimbot Reports about specific named users (both persons and organizations) irreversibly losing their data from credible sources. Of course, I will judge source credibility myself to the best of my ability.
Linked report from nsn.fm definitely do not count (they quote some analyst who says that "some people" (which people? how can we check if it's true?) "see their files as corrupted or lost" and "they likely won't be recovered"
That is this analyst do not even claim irreversible loss, he just says it's "likely"
To resolve this as YES I will require confirmed final loss of data, not speculations about its likelihood. Confirmation must come from either Yandex, or court proceedings (if any) or specific named users who do lost their data.