Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?

296

756Ṁ92k

2029

20%

chance

ALL

If the United States government has taken control of at least some part of the Panama Canal before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times.

Resolves identically to this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcanal/panama-canal-retaken

Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - Control means the United States assumes new primary operational authority over some part of the canal. (AI summary of creator comment)

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Why the recent YES spike? I would assume this should be way lower, which prob means I'm missing something. V curious what might be influencing this.

aberto a Ṁ2,720 YES at 16% order

Limit order on YES at 16%.

comprou Ṁ10 YES

obviously not

@zsig you may have bet the wrong way based on your comment partner

@No_uh Always bet against the obvious

comprou Ṁ250 NO

By “United States”, u will exclude Private firm headquartered in US?

Eg “Google to run Pacific port of Panama Canal” will NOT count?

Not sure I understand the criteria (which I understand come from the Kalshi market). If the US government ends up having 10% voting power in an organization that manages the canal, does it count as having control of a part of the canal?