Will Trump cut >100,000 federal employees in 2026
5
1.1kṀ1472027
27%
chance
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2025 saw unprecedented impacts to the federal workforce. Will 2026 bring similar results?
I will subtract the January 2026 reading of federal employee count from the January 2027 reading using the FRED federal employee counts given here:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001
If the difference exceeds 100,000 the answer resolves yes, and no otherwise.
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