Will there be manifold billionaire by 2030
31
1kṀ1826
2031
75%
chance

Will there be a manifold user who is either a billionaire in USD or billionaire in mana by 2030. This will be measured in 2024 USD so adjust for inflation in 2030. Official manifold accounts will not count. Any profit or balance manipulation will still count for this market even if it is only for a short amount of time.

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Does @GhostofEvan count?

@realTomBayes Actually yes it probably does? The description specifically says "any profit or balance manipulation will still count for this market even if it is only for a short amount of time".

@Eliza I kinda wonder if this type of manipulation is not what that means, though. Did they mean like, "Hey me and my seventeen Manifold Millionaire friends are going to pool our balances on one account for 5 minutes to resolve the market Yes"

aberto a Ṁ50 NO at 72% order

1000 bucks is 100000 mana.

1 billion mana is equivalent to 10 million dollars.

It's adjusted for inflation so if they keep inflating mana it doesn't matter, basically someone need to own 10 million dollar worth of mana. Seems like an awful lot for a play money site. Even serious prediction markets like polymarket don't have that big users yet.

Actually i'm wrong. 1000 bucks is 1 million mana.

So someone would have to own 1 million dollar worth of mana at some point. If they ever make this site so you can get paid, i could see people invest more into this site. But otherwise it's not going to happen imo. Who would ever put a fortune like that into this site?

@NielS Well, soem billionare can make an account with only 1000 mana

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