I'm not quite sure I understand the resolution criteria. Going off the fact virtual influencers have millions of followers, I can't be long until someone plugs an interesting LLM into one and creates the first "ai influencer"

@ElliotDavies If it's not just a party trick but instead a persona that persoatently has a bunch of fans that it talks with then yes, I would count that.

Going from the probabilities, it appears that this is quite a safe prediction and the outcome is overdetermined. I'm thinking maybe I should set up a bunch of markets about how far it will go.

@tailcalled that sounds about right to me - but I suspect making good resolution criteria is quite hard unless you have a real vision for what the future will look like