Will there be 10 or More Nuclear-Armed States by 2035 depending on a Trump win?
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62%
Trump wins and 10+ nuclear-armed states
36%
Trump wins and 9 nuclear-armed states at most
1%
Trump loses and 10+ nuclear-armed states
Inspired this post about joint markets, here is a variant of this conditional Metaculus question.
Resolves according to Metaculus. See the fine-print there.
Trumps chances: /duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres
Currently, nine states possess nuclear weapons: Russia, US, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. The most recent entrant into that nuclear club was North Korea, in 2006.
Close date is currently taken from Metaculus but will almost certainly be extended.
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@NathanScott I won't be able to resolve it until 2035 and I why not allow the trading to continue? I still want to the close date to trigger to take a look at the Metaculus side.
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