Will the US Treasury issue a new General License authorizing broad oil operations in Venezuela in 2026?
4
100á¹€49Dec 31
64%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution Criteria:
Yes: If OFAC issues a General License (GL) that explicitly supersedes or expands beyond the narrow scope of General License 41 (which currently restricts Chevron's profits to debt repayment).
Yes: If the specific sanctions prohibiting US persons from dealing with PDVSA (E.O. 13850) are formally lifted or suspended.
No: If only "Specific Licenses" (case-by-case private permissions) are granted to individual companies like Exxon or ConocoPhillips without a public General License.
I intend to resolve in the spirit of the question in case of gray area. I will not bet in this market to remain as objective as possible. If necessary, I reserve the right to resolve to a PROB or to my best judgment at the end of the year.
Esta pergunta é gerenciada e resolvida pela Predita.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Pessoas também estão operando
Perguntas relacionadas
Will a presidential election be held in Venezuela in february 2026?
1% chance
Will the US government confirm the discovery of "significant weapons systems" on any Venezuelan Flotilla tanker?
7% chance
Will Venezuela continue submissive to american demands in 2026?
65% chance
Will the US or US companies work on oil extraction in Venezuela in 2026?
65% chance
Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2026?
99% chance
Will ExxonMobil or ConocoPhillips officially announce a new joint venture or production agreement in Venezuela in 2026?
80% chance
any U.S. federal official visit Venezuela before June 1, 2026?
28% chance
Will the US have 5 consecutive days of active military operations in Venezuela at any point in 2026?
37% chance
Will another USA attack happens in Venezuelan soil in 2026?
35% chance
Will the US actually "run" Venezuela?
11% chance