Free and fair in this context means that all American Citizens will have the right and reasonable ability to vote in their Midterm Elections. additionally this means that the integrity of their votes after being cast will remain untampered in anyway shape or form. This also means that no form of intimidation or coehersion will be used on the people attempting to vote. This also means that impedences to vote such as through force or through using unlawful excutive orders aimed at slowing or halting the ballot process or voting infastructure process will count.

Resolution criteria

The 2026 midterm elections will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. This market resolves YES if the elections are determined to be free and fair according to the following criteria:

• All eligible U.S. citizens have the right and reasonable ability to vote

• Vote integrity is maintained after ballots are cast with no tampering

• No voter intimidation or coercion occurs

• No impediments to voting through force or unlawful executive orders affecting ballot or voting infrastructure processes

Resolution will be based on assessments from OSCE election observation missions, which the United States has invited to observe every general and midterm election since 2002. The OSCE will publish preliminary findings immediately after the election, with a final comprehensive report issued weeks later. Additional sources include reports from domestic election monitoring organizations and court rulings on election-related disputes.

The market resolves NO if credible evidence demonstrates systematic violations of these criteria that materially affected the election's outcome or legitimacy.

Background

In January 2026, The Washington Post reported that the second Trump administration had undertaken several tactics, including mid-decade redrawing of congressional districts for partisan gain, prosecution of political opponents, and a push to change voting methods and rules, that were meant to undermine confidence in the midterm elections. Maps have changed or would change in several states, often due to legal challenges made based on partisan or racial gerrymandering.

In the 2024 elections, threats, harassment, and violence against election administrators were a cause for serious concern and made recruiting election workers a challenge, as well as making additional security measures necessary.

Considerations

There is a legal prohibition of international election observation in 17 states, against the commitments made by all 57 states of the OSCE. This may limit the comprehensiveness of international observation coverage. Additionally, voter ID remains a controversial issue, with supporters claiming the laws safeguard election integrity and opponents arguing they disproportionately affect various minority groups.

This description was generated by AI.