Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030

1kṀ3031

2030

18%

chance

ALL

For clarity, if a part of Russia secedes as an independent state this would resolve positively.

If Crimea went back to Ukraine that would not be enough.

If Crimea became an independent country, that would.

Ukraine-Russia war

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more clearer question with 1.5k MANA: https://manifold.markets/fast/will-any-of-the-89-russian-regions?r=ZmFzdA

If Crimea went back to Ukraine that would not be enough.
If Crimea became an independent country, that would.

This doesn't make sense.

@BrunoParga under the Russian Constitution there more lands in Russia than it is Internationally recognized, and these contradictions are adding more chances of breaking up

Current events on this front:

https://manifold.markets/Schwabilismus/will-ukraine-take-grayvoron-this-we?r=U2Nod2FiaWxpc211cw

Will Ukraine take Grayvoron this week?

60% chance. Context, as this is just unfolding: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1660586319679029250?cxt=HHwWhIC89bSdy4suAAAA Russian separatists seem to cooperate with Ukraine and took the border checkpoint at Kozinka. They seem to be carrying out operations on russian soil in order to…

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