Examples of what I would consider meaningful negative impacts:

1. A significant drop in userbase or subscribers that seems to be connected

2. Impactful hostile government action targeting OpenAI or Sam Altman by e.g. a Democratic controlled congress

3. Retribution from the Trump administration because OpenAI reneged on the deal

This may resolve YES early if something significant and unambiguously negative happens.

If it is ambiguous, I will not resolve hastily and may extend the resolution deadline until I am convinced one way or the other.