Alongside the Prize Drawing announcement, Manifold has added a new identity verification system for new users. Users who don't provide ID and a selfie to pass the check (it uses the iDenfy API) are severely restricted. They apparently receive no starting mana and no quest bonuses, and they can't comment. This effectively makes the site unusable for anyone not willing to submit to the corporate panopticon. Existing users are grandfathered and not restricted.
These changes will be considered reversed if, without submitting to ID or selfie verification, new users:
Receive the same starting mana as before, or at least the same as ID-checked users.
Receive the same quest bonuses as before, or at least the same as ID-checked or grandfathered users.
Can comment and create markets/polls/posts freely.
All of these criteria must be fulfilled before the closing date (3 months from the change announcement) to resolve YES. The market will resolve YES early if this happens. Otherwise, the market will resolve NO on the closing date.
Restrictions on entry into the Prize Drawing, or restrictions on the referral system will not factor into the outcome of this market.
I may bet on this market. If the outcome is disputed, I will nominate a panel of 3 moderators to decide by vote.
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Pros:
• If it prevents fake or duplicate users, pegging a 1:1 relationship between users here and real people.
• No more advertisement spam! 🙂
• If someone is not supposed to be allowed to gamble, then that can be enforced.
Cons:
• If lots of users find it impossible to actually get to the end of the process successfully, lots of these things end up bugged, refusing to cooperate, geo-restrictive without communicating that succinctly or clearly, etc…
• If to get help with the verification process requires having a verified account.
• If the verification process works, but the requirements are out of reach, for example requiring a document not everyone has or has practical access to.
• If new would-be users are put off by having to jump through this hoop.
(this problem now verified as not a problem)
• If it gives Manifold Markets access to users documents, ID cards, etc… and Manifold are later compromised in a data breach.
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Feel free to help me decide.
Guys if you want them to reverse this, you should keep buying no to bribe SG and let him rug pull us.
@Mochi I probably would not have created an account and lurked for a very long time before becoming active if the site required ID verification. I don’t see how we can realistically attract new users with this new barrier. maybe make initial balance lower and they have to build up their balance as an alternative to prevent spam/alt abuse?
I feel like a game that is a reputation engine at its core could allow people to vouch for someone else with the reputation currency.
So maybe there is a way forward that lets people play and get bonuses but perhaps the free starting mana will never come back.
If this was a 3-5 year market I'd encourage anyone looking at this to buy Yes shares for long-run chances. For 3 months, meh, hard to guess.
@SG if we're no longer using Google login as a first-pass human/spam test, can we get a direct login method now???
@SG I imagine the future world in which free sites are inundated with AI bots beyond the capacity of normal moderation to handle will have developed better, more private human verification systems that are standard and expected by users. So being early on this doesn't necessarily make it a good idea.
@SG so we should surrender our privacy for the sake of this game? Better spam solutions do exist.
Maybe use verification to participate in charity raffles and drawings, and restrict commenting if suspicious activity is detected.