Will the first detected BSM particle's mass be above 1 GeV?
12
1kṀ1812030
66%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If a detection is widely contested, I will use my (somewhat conservative) discretion.
In the event of no detection by close time, this will resolve to MKT.
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It's possible that we discover two BSM particles at the same time, for example a <1 GeV dark neutrino and a >1 GeV dark gauge boson, something like this paper https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.09877. I wonder how this would resolve in that case.
@Eel13 resolving 50% seems most reasonable in that case. And if there are 3 discoveries, resolving 33% or 66% similarly
@EvanConrad There are certainly no experiments that are /expected/ to detect a BSM particle, regardless of timeline; that is, if by "expected" you mean "consensus that the probability that a particle is detected is greater than 50%".
@ScottLawrence
I mean more: "There exists a theory X that suggests there is a BSM particle, and an experiment is currently funded or underway to test theory X"
@EvanConrad Then yes. But note that theories typically have free parameters, and therefore don't predict "there should be a BSM particle with mass 845.68 GeV", but rather "there might be a particle with these sorts of interactions, and masses between 120 MeV and 8 TeV haven't yet been ruled out by cosmological observations or other experiments". (This is a caricature. At the very least one must also keep track of interaction strengths, which are typically independent free parameters.)
So, for example: WIMP dark matter. See PandaX (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PandaX) for one of many in-progress experiments. And here (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weakly_interacting_massive_particles#/media/File:CDMS_parameter_space_2004.png) is a probably-not-up-to-date exclusion plot.