Tesla unveiled the two seat Cybercab (no steering wheel, no pedals) at its We, Robot event in October 2024, began building it at Giga Texas in 2026, and has announced a Cybercab launch event in Austin on September 3, 2026. Tesla's existing Robotaxi service, live in Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando and Tampa, still runs on modified Model Y vehicles, and Tesla has said Cybercab rides begin with employees before the vehicles join the public Robotaxi service. Roughly 100 Cybercabs have been reported staged at a Dallas robotaxi hub. This market asks how far the Cybercab itself actually gets into public service this year. Resolves YES if, at any point on or before 11:59pm US Central time on December 31, 2026, Cybercab vehicles have carried members of the general public on rides booked through Tesla's Robotaxi app on public roads in at least three distinct US metropolitan areas. Otherwise resolves NO. Clarifications: 1. Cybercab means the purpose built two seat vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals. Model Y or other Tesla robotaxis do not count. 2. Members of the general public means non Tesla employee riders. Invitation only or early access waves count as long as the riders are members of the public. Rides given to Tesla employees, and demo rides given to guests at a Tesla event venue (including the September 3 launch event), do not count. 3. Rides may be paid or promotional/free, as long as they are booked by public riders through Tesla's Robotaxi app and run on public roads. 4. The three metro areas must be distinct US metropolitan areas (for example Austin, Dallas Fort Worth, Houston, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Francisco Bay Area). Suburbs inside the same metro do not count separately. The three do not have to be operating simultaneously, cumulative coverage over the period counts. 5. Resolution sources, in order of preference: Tesla official communications (Tesla or Tesla Robotaxi posts, the Tesla Robotaxi app service listings, Tesla press or investor materials), otherwise consistent reporting from at least two independent credible outlets. This market will be resolved by January 7, 2027 (the RESOLUTION_DEADLINE), using information available by that date.
Update 2026-08-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will resolve YES only if there are three qualifying metro areas actively operating on the closing date (December 31, 2026).
If the service is achieved in three areas but is paused or discontinued in any of them before the closing date, the market will resolve NO.
1,000@ChurlishGambit Resolves if there are three qualifying markets on the closing date. I don't think it should resolve yes if, for example, they start fully autonomous rides, have a fatality, and then pause the service. The fatality would have been an indication that their service wasn't ready.