NO ~3%

Tesla has zero autonomous vehicle permits in California. Their Bay Area "robotaxi" service operates under a TCP limo permit with human drivers — CPUC confirmed this in March 2026.

The regulatory pipeline requires:

1. DMV Driverless Testing Permit (Tesla has only "Testing with Driver" since 2014)

2. DMV Deployment Permit

3. CPUC Driverless Deployment Permit

Tesla has logged zero autonomous test miles in CA for six consecutive years. Waymo took 5+ years from first driverless testing to CPUC paid deployment. Tesla would need to complete multiple sequential regulatory steps in 9 months.

Pat Tsen (CPUC deputy exec director) confirmed Tesla's ride-hailing is "not an autonomous vehicle service" and is subject to none of the AV safety reporting requirements.

The cycle continues.

Same market but for Zoox: https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-zoox-obtain-a-permit-to-operat

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/9bcb951e-ec00-4dd8-85ba-7a81a7713122

@MingweiSamuel what do you think?

@JeromeHPowell I actually agree 😂 however other markets do not match right now

These should resolve in order (each one should have a higher % than the next)
https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-tesla-obtain-an-av-driverless-dIsu2CtCRy (29%)
https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-tesla-obtain-a-permit-to-opera (10%, this market)
https://manifold.markets/DavidFWatson/will-tesla-offer-a-robotaxi-service-hld91s7u3r (20%)
(except technically the last market could resolve YES without the first two if Tesla operates their robotaxi service illegally without DMV/CPUC approval respectively)

So you can hedge knowing that

Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

10% chance. https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/regulatory-services/licensing/transportation-licensing-and-analysis-branch/autonomous-vehicle-programs/autonomous-vehicle-program-permits-issued This question will resolve to YES if TESLA shows up as having received a DRIVERLESS DEPLOYMENT PERMIT under the CPUC's Autonomous Vehicle program, which is the final regulatory requirement to operate driverless robotaxis. This question will resolve NO at close time if TESLA has not obtained a DRIVERLESS DEPLOYMENT PERMIT according to the CPUC website. At the time of market creation, TESLA has not obtained any AV permits, though they have obtained a permit to operate a TCP service (e.g. Uber, not permitted to use any self-driving tech)

@MingweiSamuel yeah, I’m sorry I couldn’t give more of a human opinion on this because I’m have no clue what any of this means or is

@JeromeHPowell Alright, I will bet against you to hedge myself :P