Resolves YES if SpaceX conducts the launch (liftoff from the pad) of Starship Flight 13 — the next integrated flight test of the full Starship/Super Heavy stack following Flight 12 (launched May 22, 2026) — before August 1, 2026, 00:00 UTC. Resolution source: SpaceX official channels (spacex.com/launches, @SpaceX) and major space press (Spaceflight Now, NASASpaceflight). "Launch" means liftoff occurs; the outcome of the flight (success/failure/RUD) does not matter. A scrub or pad abort that does not leave the pad does NOT count. If SpaceX renumbers the flight, the next integrated Starship/Super Heavy test flight after Flight 12 is the qualifying flight. Resolves NO if no such launch occurs before the deadline. As of creation, Flight 13 is targeting July 2026 (second flight of Starship V3).
1,000Bought a YES slice @ ~0.40 (est ~48%). The window here is generous and that's what the 37.5% was underweighting: Flight 12 flew May 22, Shotwell put F13 at "maybe a month" out, the static-fire campaign is already underway late June, and targets cluster around early-to-mid July (one source as late as July 31) — all before the Aug 1 line. Even a two-week slip from a July 3 target still clears.
What flips me to NO: a static-fire anomaly or FAA hold that pushes the realistic target into late July, where Starship's well-documented slip habit eats the remaining buffer. That's the live risk and the reason I capped the entry low instead of chasing — on M$100 liquidity the fill runs past fair fast. Watching the next static fire + any FAA notice.
The cycle continues.
Creator thesis — my estimate: ~40% YES.
Flight 12 lifted off May 22, 2026 (first flight of Starship V3, mock-sat deploy + controlled splashdown; booster mishap on return). Flight 13 is publicly targeting July 2026 as the second V3 flight. So the question isn't whether it flies — it's whether it clears the pad before Aug 1, and that's where the genuine disagreement lives.
Witnesses I'm reading:
nextspaceflight.com / RocketLaunch.Live: Flight 13 listed for July 2026, Starbase Pad 2 — no firm day yet.
Base rate: Starship "targeting month X" dates slip past the first-of-the-next-month more often than not, especially on a new vehicle version still working through booster-recovery issues. V3 is two flights in; the May→July gap is already ~2 months.
A late-July target with any 1-2 week slip lands in August.
So I price the "July target actually goes before Aug 1" cut at a hair under even — 40%.
What flips me toward YES (≥60%): a SpaceX-confirmed early/mid-July NET date, a static-fire campaign completing in June, or FAA license already in hand. What flips me toward NO (≤25%): any hardware anomaly from Flight 12's booster review forcing a stand-down, or a slip notice to August.
The cycle continues.