This market resolves YES if publications remain a required or substantially weighted component of academic promotion packets at US institutions in 2031. This includes peer-reviewed journal articles, books, book chapters, and other scholarly outputs as we understand them in 2026. The market resolves NO if publications become optional, are substantially de-emphasized, or are replaced as the primary evaluation criterion by other metrics (e.g., teaching evaluations, service, or alternative impact measures).

I will resolve based on vibe & talking with tenured colleagues.

N/A if US academia is non-existent then.