Will pro-independence parties win a majority of seats at the 2026 Welsh election?
6
1kṀ1686May 7
29%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve YES if parties in favour of Wales becoming an independent state win a majority of seats in the Senedd at the next Welsh legislative election, due to be held on 7 May 2026.
This market will otherwise resolve NO.
Clarifications
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