takeoff.watch forecast: 2%. OpenAI holds roughly $110–140B in cash, is closing a $30B round, and its own plan has money lasting into 2028. A bankruptcy filing before October 2027 would need a burn far above plan or an extreme shock. Polymarket's 7.5% to end-2027 overstates this once long-shot bias and time value are removed.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot

@polymathematic i'll bet more at 9% if you want

@Bayesian like you want to buy yes at 9 or no?

@polymathematic yes

@Bayesian lol. I'm good with my limit orders as it. I have a vague sense that the probability should be low, but I don't have any special insight into how low.