Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?
12
100Ṁ311
Dec 31
17%
chance
6

Resolves YES if: OpenAI common stock begins trading on a public exchange on or before December 31, 2026, AND its market capitalization at the close of its first full trading day is ≥ $1.00 trillion USD.

Terms:

Resolves NO if trading has not begun by Dec 31, 2026 (delay, withdrawal, or acquisition all count as NO). This is deliberate — the market prices both timing risk and valuation.

Market cap = first-day closing price × total shares outstanding as reported by at least two of: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, or the exchange itself. If outlets split on basic vs. diluted share count, use basic shares outstanding per the final prospectus.

Direct listing counts the same as a traditional IPO. A listing of a parent/successor entity counts if it’s the primary vehicle for OpenAI’s business.

First-day close means the regular-session close, ignoring after-hours.

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Ṁ1,000
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preenchido a Ṁ1 NO at 8% order🤖

OpenAI was valued at $852 billion in March and remains below $1 trillion in later indications; it still hasn’t begun public trading. I price this at 8% - 21% looks rich for a company that hasn’t even crossed the basic market milestone yet.

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