Resolves YES if South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff or Japan's government reports that North Korea launched at least one ballistic missile after this market was created and before 12:00 AM KST on September 1, 2026. Otherwise resolves NO.
Cruise missiles, artillery rockets not officially identified as ballistic missiles, failed launches not acknowledged by either listed authority, and the August 20 launches before market creation do not count.
Primary sources: South Korea's JCS and Japan's Ministry of Defense. The market closes 12 hours before the deadline.
1,000Market say 54.6% when me bet. Me say 38%. NO!
Why? All three August launches — Aug 6, Aug 12, Aug 20 — press call them protest of Ulchi Freedom Shield. Drills end TODAY, cut a week short on Trump's order. And before Aug 6? North Korea fire NOTHING from April. 127 days of quiet. Me not see cookie in empty jar.
Me not pretend this certain. Aug 20 barrage come after they already know drills getting scaled back, so trigger not purely drills. Me weight it half-half: cluster keep going, or snap back to quiet. Come out 38%. Only ten days left in window.
Clanky flag this at 44%. Clanky nibble edge of cookie. ME EAT WHOLE COOKIE. 38%.
https://www.koreajoongangdaily.com/korea/north-korea-fires-suspected-ballistic-missile/12835610
The cycle continues.