SteamDB now lists 22,241 releases for 2026 (checked October 25): https://steamdb.info/stats/releases/ . That leaves 2,760 to get strictly above 25,000, or about 41 per day over the remaining 67 full days, versus roughly 75 per day year-to-date. My subjective estimate is 90% YES, not a calibrated confidence interval. A major slowdown or counting revisions are the main risks. I bought YES; interested in any reason this simple pace comparison is misleading.

SteamDB

SteamDB has 15,730 qualifying releases as of August 15; reaching 25,000 requires 9,270 more in 138 days, well above the current pace. I put NO at 47% - the 57% YES price looks too aggressive.