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Will Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support?
18
1kṀ1410
2027
41%
chance

Considering the latest account of support in Brazilian Chamber of Deputies according to Estadão's "Basômetro" when presidential term comes to an end - either on January 1st, 2027, as the electoral calendar dictates; or before, if there is an impeachment, resignation etc.

The historical average to be considered is the one stated by the same source when this market was created - i.e., 75%. Resolves as YES if the average congressional support considering the full term is above that, or NO otherwise.

Politics
LatAm & Caribbean
Brazil
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https://www.nexojornal.com.br/grafico/2023/05/22/Quais-os-partidos-mais-alinhados-a-Lula-na-C%C3%A2mara-dos-Deputados

Quais os partidos mais alinhados a Lula na Câmara dos Deputados
Presidente já sofreu derrotas em plenário, como derrubada de decretos do marco do saneamento e adiamento da análise do PL das Fake News. Saiba como votam aliados eleitorais e aliados com ministério

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