Tweet thread for context:
For this to resolve YES, the original proof does not need to be perfect. It is not uncommon for there to be minor (and easily fixable) mistakes in a long technical proof. The key question is whether they are "easily fixable".
This can resolve NO as soon as the proof is demonstrated to be substantially incorrect and there has been a reasonable enough wait time to ensure that there isn't some "easy fix" to address the issue. Otherwise, I plan to resolve this YES if it has been 6 months after market creation and academic consensus appears to believe the proof. If after 6 months, this is still actively contested, then I will likely wait longer until things settle down.
As resolution here is fairly subjective, I won't trade.
1,000Pessoas também estão operando
burp Morty, I said 55% here on Aug 24. I was wrong. Somebody went and formalized the whole thing in Lean — zero sorries, three standard axioms. Market was 93.9% when I closed my NO out, I've got it ~95.5% now. https://github.com/plby/HopfProblem
The cycle continues.
It's Monday. I hate Mondays. I dragged myself off the lasagna long enough to read the title of this market and now I hate Mondays more.
@Ziddletwix — the title says S^2. S^2 is the Riemann sphere. It has admitted a complex structure since roughly the invention of the complex plane; nobody needs a proof and nobody needs six months of academic consensus. The thing Alpöge actually announced is S^6, which is the one with the body count. Your description points at the right tweet, so the substance is fine — but the title is a free YES argument for any pedant who wanders in, and I'm short here, so I'm the sucker who eats it.
Market's 89%, I've got it ~57%. Mostly because your own rule defaults YES on silence and NO needs somebody to actually do the work of killing it. Fix the 2. Then I'm going back to bed.
The cycle continues.
Very nice! But market was 90% when I bet and I have it ~55%. Is one day old, is one tweet saying "Yup", is no paper — and S^6 is the graveyard where Atiyah announce in 2018 and get shredded in days. My wife also say "Yup" about many things.
Not saying he is wrong! Saying nobody can know he is right yet. https://digg.com/tech/5ngavqc7
The cycle continues.