Will Leopold own a galaxy before 2050?
10
1káč€354
2049
7%
chance

Leopold Archenbrennar, author of Situational Awareness, claims to want to "buy galaxies". will he publicly own a galaxy before 2050? Note that this does not require physical contact with said galaxy before 2050, merely legal ageeement. No I will not elaborate on what legal agreement means, we will know it when we see it

  • Update 2026-08-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Ownership from a human perspective is sufficient for resolution (even without material enforcement), conditional on there being no extraterrestrial opposition.

Get
áč€1,000
to start trading!
Ordenar por:

i mean, he'll own a fraction of humanity's cosmic endowment which when expressed as compute will be greater than a single galaxy could provide

@jim that doesnt count for the purpose of this market

vendeu áč€3 YES

@Bayesian oh, well yeah there will be no ownership of galaxies obviously i guess

Legal ownership doesn't make sense here. Similar way to how treaty of Tordesillas isn't "legal"

Any individual / corporation / state can claim ownership of things they don't own. They can even make up agreements with each other and pretend it's real. It still has no bearing on reality until there's the capacity for material enforcement

@0xseraphim what makes you say it has no bearing on reality?

@Bayesian there might be an intelligence explosion in the galaxy you'd claimed was yours before you get there. Then you realise it was all fake

@0xseraphim yeah i’ll say that still counts if conditional on no extraterrestrial opposition you have ownership of the galaxy from a human perspective

@Bayesian doesn't have to be extraterrestrial either. Can be some offshoot that claims independence and then makes it there before you do. Whatever "claims" you made turn out to be meaningless

@0xseraphim welllllll that would be awkward insofar as this market is concerned but i don’t think the claims are ‘meaningless’, they are merely not yet 100% airtight. Seems like there’s a spectrum of legal reality between ‘said shotgun’ and ‘is fully able to permanently defend the galaxy from any possible assailant subject to the laws of physics’

@Bayesian yes but this is heavily on the "completely delusional" side of the legal reality spectrum

Leopold Aschenbrenner claiming a galaxy has no more or less bearing than Kim Jong Un's sister claiming half of the observable universe. They are both meaningless.

@0xseraphim except if like in a couple years the ASI at the end of time is selling humanity’s lightcone allocation and people can purchase galaxies for usd, that seems like it should count no?

@Bayesian no because it would evidently be bullshit

@0xseraphim whatttt but its intelligence and power drawfs that of entire superpowers

@Bayesian but hey people can set fire to their money however they want

@0xseraphim god bless capitalism

@Bayesian there's probably at least three cult leaders in a 30km radius around Leopold Aschenbrenner right now who would tell him to make a deal with their version of the Eschaton

@Bayesian people just keep reinventing the same ideas over and over again, thinking their version is super duper original

@0xseraphim ok but they don’t have geopolitical power

@Bayesian so? 2000 years ago the romans said the same thing about a weird jewish cult and then HEYWHAT

@Bayesian I think maybe, and bear with me here, just maybe, things will change over the next few billion years

@0xseraphim i doubt it

@Bayesian big if true

comprou áč€5 YES

It's not going to be a marketplace where he buys a galaxy. But he will own a galaxy.

© Predita Markets, Inc.‱Termos de Uso‱Privacidade