This market resolves YES if KIA-led forces have captured Katha, northern Sagaing Region by September 30, 2026.

YES if by September 30, 2026:

• All major junta installations in Katha captured

• No organized junta battalion resistance

• KIA-led forces control Irrawaddy river access at Katha

• Resistance administering civilian affairs

NO if:

• Katha remains contested or under junta control on September 30, 2026

Resolution sources (priority order):

1. The Irrawaddy (irrawaddy.com)

2. Myanmar Now (myanmar-now.org)

3. DVB English (english.dvb.no)

4. BNI Online (bnionline.net)

5. KIA official statements