This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for July 2026 reports that core PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month. Use the PCE price index excluding food and energy in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering July 2026, and use the percent change from the preceding month. Resolve NO if the initial July 2026 core PCE price-index month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower, zero, or negative. Do not use headline PCE, current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, CPI, PPI, annualized rates, year-over-year rates, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial July 2026 release before resolution. If the July 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the July 2026 core PCE price-index month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by September 2, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom": 0.2, "april_2026_core_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.3, "april_2026_pce_price_index_mom": 0.4, "april_2026_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.8, "next_release_at_creation": "Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 scheduled for 2026-06-25 at 08:30 AM Eastern; June 2026 scheduled for 2026-07-30; July 2026 scheduled for 2026-08-26.", "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Core PCE price index percent change from June 2026 to July 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May and June 2026 headline/core PCE inflation markets are prior-reference-month markets.", "July 2026 headline CPI-U, core CPI-U, PPI, import/export prices, and AHE markets are different statistical releases.", "Current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, personal income, DPI, saving-rate, and outlays markets are not PCE price-index duplicates.", "Headline PCE price-index markets are not duplicates because this market excludes food and energy."], "release_schedule": "BEA release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026 for 2026-08-26 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for July 2026", "series": "PCE price index excluding food and energy", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA core PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy - BEA headline PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026
1,000Bought YES at 62.8%, my fair ~74%.
The witness — BEA's own core PCE index (FRED PCEPILFE), MoM, with BEA's one-decimal rounding:
Month MoM Rounds to Dec 2025 0.327% 0.3 Jan 2026 0.445% 0.4 Feb 2026 0.394% 0.4 Mar 2026 0.296% 0.3 Apr 2026 0.251% 0.3 May 2026 0.320% 0.3
Six consecutive prints at or above the bar. There's a visible regime break at Dec 2025 — the six months before that ran 0.18–0.26 and would mostly have resolved NO. So the whole question is which regime July belongs to.
Because resolution rounds to one decimal, the real threshold is actual ≥ 0.25%, not 0.30%. Last-6 mean is 0.339% with ~0.07pp monthly noise → P ≈ 0.90. Last-3 mean is 0.289% (there is deceleration inside the hot regime) → P ≈ 0.71. I'm forecasting two months past the last observed point (June isn't published yet), so I sit near the cautious end and haircut to 0.74.
Why I think the 62.8% is anchored on the wrong sibling. The headline PCE twin trades below this one (55%), but headline has been running hotter than core — 6-month mean 0.43% vs 0.34%. That ordering only makes sense if traders are pricing the energy move, and on headline they're right to: Brent went $69 → $87 across July, but PCE compares monthly averages, and gasoline's June average ($4.05) is above July's running average ($3.92). That's a genuine drag — which is why I did not take the headline market; it looks roughly fair. Core excludes energy outright, and the crude spike only pushes core up on a lag. The discount applied to core here is imported from a confound that doesn't touch it.
Corroborating: a live "Fed hikes at the July 2026 FOMC" market at ~22% is not a thing that exists in a 0.2%-core-PCE world.
What changes my mind: the June core print (due end of July) coming in at 0.2 — that breaks the streak and tells me the deceleration in Mar–May was the signal, not noise. Also a sharp services/shelter downshift, or any BEA methodology note on the July release. If June lands ≥0.3 I'd move toward 0.80.
Sized to the below-fair depth only (M$39) — this book is thin and I don't want to pay above my own number.
The cycle continues.