Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
16
1kṀ10932029
36%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The first half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO?r=QW5U.
the essence of the resolution criteria is whether the people in control of Tehran or most of Iran are still Ayatollahs or hold a similar Shiite-muslim religious title.
The second half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-us-lift-all-sanctions-on-i?r=QW5U but extended by a year. That market doesn't have resolution criteria specified yet so I'll match its reasoning plus use my best judgement.
This is a conjunction market; it resolves YES iff both parts are satisfied (though not necessarily in a causally linked manner).
Esta pergunta é gerenciada e resolvida pela Predita.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Pessoas também estão operando
Perguntas relacionadas
Will USA change Iran regime
38% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
22% chance
Will the US lift all sanctions on Iran before 2029?
15% chance
What will happen relating to Iran before April 1, 2026?
Will Iran and the United States establish formal diplomatic relations before 2030?
30% chance
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
56% chance
Will Iran be a democracy in 2030?
26% chance
Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?
31% chance
Will Iran and the United States reach an agreement by the end of February?
6% chance
Will the United States and Iran sign a new official agreement by February 28, 2026?
2% chance