I am unhappy with all the markets trying to ask how good Sonnet 5 will be. Here is another market that you, too, can be unhappy with! I will close and evaluate this market one month after the release.
I use both browser chat and Claude Code, currently only with Opus 4.5. I sometimes run into token limits, but not super regularly.
Presumably, it will have to be at least almost as good as Opus 4.5 for me to switch. If I am using a mix of both (which would surprise me), I will estimate the amount and resolve partially. If I switch to another model entirely, I will N/A.
I will not bet in this market.
1,000@traders
So I'm unsure what to do here. I have switched from Opus 4.5 to some mix of Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, neither of which is Sonnet 5. By the title of the market the answer is No, by the literal resolution criteria I think the market resolves N/A?
There are some other options (as the model everyone expected to be released as Sonnet 5 has probably been released now, either as Opus or as Sonnet 4.6):
- Reinterpret this to be about Opus 4.6
- Reinterpret this to be about Sonnet 4.6
- Wait for a model named Sonnet 5 to release and ignore minor releases in the meantime.
What do you all think?