Will I make mana on this market?
5
100Ṁ279
Jun 23
84%
chance
6

Resolution criteria

  • YES: My (the creator's) net mana profit directly associated with this market is strictly greater than 0 at the time of resolution. This includes all of my trading gains or losses on this market, creator fees, unique trader bonuses, and any other platform rewards, minus any creation or promotion costs.

  • NO: My net mana profit from this market is 0 or negative at the time of resolution.

  • Source of truth: My transaction history and portfolio breakdown for this specific market. I will self-resolve this market honestly based on my net balance sheet once all other trades are settled.

Background

This is a self-referential market predicting whether I (the creator) will successfully profit in mana (Manifold's platform currency) by creating and interacting with this market. On Manifold Markets, creators can gain mana through active trading on their own markets, collecting creator fees from trading volume, or earning bonuses. Conversely, they may lose mana if their bets resolve against them or if trade volume fails to recoup creation costs.

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What is the current net profit?
Creation cost: 100 mana
Trader bonuses: 4*6 mana = 24 mana
Trading profit: 7 mana
24+7-100 = -69
Did I miss anything? 🤔

@4fa plus what I’d make in profit from betting on it myself

@Ludacrisllama That's the 7 mana I counted. So the total is currently negative?

@4fa yea, prolly

@Ludacrisllama that’s why I need everybody to vote NO

Seems likely

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