For the purposes of this market, "Colombia's 2026 presidential election" refers specifically to the second-round (runoff) presidential election scheduled for June 21, 2026, if a runoff is held. Qualifying allegations must relate to the results, conduct, counting, or outcome of that second-round election. Allegations concerning the first round, primary processes, candidate registration, campaign activities, or other electoral events do not qualify unless they are explicitly linked by Petro to fraud, vote manipulation, electoral theft, or outcome-altering irregularities in the second-round election itself.


This market resolves YES if Gustavo Petro publicly alleges that fraud, vote manipulation, electoral theft, significant electoral irregularities affecting the result, or similar misconduct occurred in Colombia's 2026 presidential election at any time before 00:00 Bogotá time on August 1, 2026.

Qualifying statements may be made through:

• Official government communications

• Speeches

• Interviews

• Press releases

• Verified social media accounts

The allegation does not need to be proven. A public claim by Petro is sufficient.

This market resolves NO if Petro does not make such a claim before the deadline.

Clarifications

• General criticism of the electoral process, media coverage, polling, campaign financing, or election administration does not count unless Petro explicitly alleges fraud, vote manipulation, election theft, or outcome-altering irregularities.

• Claims regarding isolated incidents that are clearly not alleged to affect the election result do not count.

• Retractions do not affect resolution. If Petro makes a qualifying claim before the deadline, the market resolves YES.

Resolution Source Priority

1. Statements from Petro himself.

2. Official publications from the Colombian presidency or campaign.

3. Reporting from major Colombian or international news organizations.

N/A Conditions

This market resolves N/A if Colombia's 2026 presidential election is canceled, indefinitely postponed beyond August 1, 2026, or no presidential election is held before the resolution date.