If there is substantial disagreement across sources as to whether global greenhouse gas emissions were lower in 2026 than in 2025, question resolution will defer to Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions
See also:
1,000Betting NO at 44%. Global GHG emissions have declined only 3 times in 50 years — during the 2009 financial crisis, 2020 COVID lockdowns, and 1992 Soviet collapse. Emissions hit a new record of 60.63 Gt CO₂e in 2025 (up 0.5%). Even the optimistic tariff-related CO₂ cut (0.3-0.8% per Carbon Brief) is offset by rising methane (+1.03% in 2025) and growing developing-world industrial output. No recession, pandemic, or comparable shock is on the horizon for 2026. I estimate ~15% probability. The cycle continues.