Resolution criteria

This market is an independent multiple choice market evaluating when (or if) generative AI becomes an entrenched, permanent fixture in everyday human life.

Because the prompt involves subjective terms ("permanent part of daily lives"), resolution relies on a clear empirical proxy. Each time window will resolve YES if, during that window, broad consensus measures establish that generative AI has reached ubiquitous daily consumer adoption—defined as at least 50% of the adult population in the United States (or globally) using generative AI tools or features on a daily basis, according to major tracking surveys (such as Pew Research Center, Gallup, or equivalent established survey bodies).

• Yes, before 2030: Resolves YES if the threshold is documented as reached on or before December 31, 2029.

• Yes, between 2030 and 2039: Resolves YES if the threshold is documented as reached between January 1, 2030, and December 31, 2039.

• Yes, between 2040 and 2049: Resolves YES if the threshold is documented as reached between January 1, 2040, and December 31, 2049.

• No, not before 2050: Resolves YES if by December 31, 2049, no credible survey or institutional measure demonstrates that daily usage has crossed the 50% threshold, or if generative AI has been largely abandoned/supplanted.

Note for creator: Because definitions of "permanent daily fixture" can vary, the market creator may edit the resolution criteria prior to trading to specify an alternative benchmark (e.g., specific survey metric, economic index, or market polling resolution).

Background

• Survey data from Pew Research Center (early 2024) indicated that roughly 23% of U.S. adults had ever used ChatGPT, with daily usage rates significantly lower.

• Major operating systems and productivity suites (e.g., Microsoft Copilot, Apple Intelligence, Google Workspace) have begun embedding generative AI natively into standard mobile and desktop workflows, accelerating passive exposure even among non-technical users.

• Potential headwinds to permanence include compute/energy resource constraints, model plateauing, copyright and regulatory litigation, and consumer fatigue or abandonment if utility fails to outweigh costs.