Resolution Criteria

Guadalajara will host four FIFA World Cup matches at Estadio Akron on June 11, 18, 23 and 26, 2026. This market resolves YES if FIFA officially cancels any of these four scheduled matches in Jalisco. Resolution will be determined by official FIFA announcements or statements from FIFA.com or official FIFA communications channels. Matches that are merely postponed or rescheduled to different dates do not count as cancellations for this market.

Background

On February 22, 2026, Mexico's most wanted man and leader of the Jalisco New Generation (CJNG) drug cartel, 'El Mencho,' was killed during a security operation. Following his death, violence spread across the country, with the cartel burning vehicles in retaliation. Flights were cancelled and Liga MX matches were postponed due to safety concerns. Sources familiar with planning have acknowledged a high level of concern over whether conditions on the ground can ensure the safety expected at a global sporting event of this scale.

Considerations

Per 2026 FIFA World Cup regulations, FIFA has the right to "cancel, reschedule or relocate one or more matches (or the entire FIFA World Cup 26) for any reason at its sole discretion, including as a result of force majeure or due to health, safety or security concerns". However, there is no indication that FIFA plans to move any matches, and neither FIFA nor Mexican authorities have issued any statement suggesting changes to the World Cup schedule. Security operations linked to cartel leadership disruptions often produce short-term spikes in violence, and at this stage, there is no realistic scenario suggesting that Mexico will lose its 2026 World Cup matches due to the unrest in Jalisco.

This description was generated by AI.