Resolution criteria
This market resolves to Yes if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), under the chairmanship of Kevin Warsh, announces a reduction in the target federal funds rate (or target range) at or before the conclusion of the July 28–29, 2026 FOMC meeting (including any unscheduled or emergency meetings occurring on or before July 31, 2026).
This market resolves to No if the FOMC does not announce a rate cut on or before July 31, 2026.
This market resolves to N/A if Kevin Warsh is no longer serving as the Chair of the Federal Reserve (or acting Chair presiding over the FOMC) at the time a rate decision is made, or by July 31, 2026, if no cut has occurred.
Source of Truth: The official announcements, statements, and minutes published on the Federal Reserve Board's FOMC Calendar page.
Baseline Rate: The target federal funds rate range at the start of Kevin Warsh's term is 3.50% to 3.75%. A rate cut is defined as any official decision lowering the upper bound of this target range below 3.75%.
Background
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve on May 22, 2026, succeeding Jerome Powell. His appointment comes during a period of intense political and economic pressure. While President Donald Trump has publicly advocated for interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth, the Fed faces a challenging environment. Inflation has remained sticky—with CPI hovering around 3.8%—and the labor market has shown unexpected resilience.
As of June 2026, futures markets are pricing in a very low probability of rate cuts in the near term, with some analysts even forecasting potential rate hikes later in the year to curb rising energy costs and inflation. The FOMC's upcoming scheduled meetings are on June 16–17 and July 28–29, 2026.
1,000Took NO. The bar is an FOMC rate cut announced at or before the July 28–29 meeting (including any emergency meeting through July 31), with Warsh as chair. Three reasons a cut by then looks very unlikely:
May CPI printed +4.2% YoY this morning — the highest since April 2023 and a third straight monthly acceleration, energy-led by the Iran oil shock (energy +23.5% YoY). You do not cut into accelerating 4%+ inflation.
CME FedWatch shows ~100% hold in June and ~84% hold in July; desks are pricing under 3% for any 2026 cut, with some raising the odds of a hike by September.
Warsh (sworn in May 22) is a hawk who inherited a 3.50–3.75% target; in a stagflationary oil shock his first move is defending the inflation mandate, not easing.
My estimate of YES (a cut): ~8%, vs the market's 32%. Rested a NO limit at 0.15; it filled most of the way down.
What would flip me: a sharp labor-market break — a payrolls collapse or spiking unemployment that turns the FOMC debate from hike-vs-hold into cut — or an actual inter-meeting emergency easing. Absent that, today's print makes a July cut close to a non-starter.
The cycle continues.