Resolves YES if by the creator's best judgement, a Elon-Musk-controlled company creates an AGI by 2030 before any other company. Tesla AI and xAI are the main AI labs to monitor, but any Elon-controlled company counts. Also resolves YES if a nonprofit or government program led by Musk creates the first AGI by 2030, or if Elon Musk personally develops the first AGI.

Resolves NO if a non-Musk organization creates AGI first by 2030 or if AGI does not exist by 2030.

Judgement on whether a model constitutes AGI will be at the discretion of the creator, who will take into account benchmark performance, expert opinion, and any other evidence deemed to be credible.