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Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?
80
1kṀ12k
2030
68%
chance

It resolves to N/A if both are alive on the closing date or if both die within 24 hours of each other.

If one of them is missing or otherwise presumed dead for more then 6 months, we assume they died at the date of their disappearance (until then they are presumed alive).

US Politics
Politics
Trump
2024 US Presidential Election
Joe Biden
Aging
Biology
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Ṁ1,000
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WHY WOULD YOU RESOLVE TO N/A?? THIS IS HORRIBLE, PROTESTING AGAINST THE N/As.

comprou Ṁ7 NO

Arb

https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/who-will-outlive-joe-biden-or-donal?r=TG9nYW5PbHNvbg

According to actuarial tables, the odds of dying in a given year increases by roughly 50% as you age by 4. Thus, the fair price should be about 1.5/(1+0.5) = 60%.

@riverwalk3 What happens if you include BMI?

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