This market resolves YES if China's total polysilicon production (all grades, HS 2804.61) for the full calendar year 2026 exceeds 1500 kt, as reported by CPIA or USGS MCS.

YES if: China polysilicon production for 2026 >= 1500 kt NO if: China polysilicon production for 2026 < 1500 kt

Resolution sources (priority order):

1. CPIA annual polysilicon production report

2. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — Silicon chapter (released February annually)

3. InfoLink Consulting annual polysilicon supply report