This market resolves YES if China's total natural graphite mine production for calendar year 2026 exceeds 800 kilotonnes (kt), as reported in the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries.

What is measured: Total China mine production of natural graphite (all types: flake, amorphous, vein) for January-December 2026, in kt, as reported by USGS MCS (published February 2027, approximately 1 month before this market's March 31, 2027 settlement).

YES if: China 2026 natural graphite production >= 800 kt NO if: China 2026 natural graphite production < 800 kt

Resolution sources (priority order):

1. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — Graphite section (usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs) Published February 2027

2. USGS National Minerals Information Center graphite statistics