How is this so close? I thought USA has no way to go there for now.

@Eliza https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/04/nasas-moon-ship-and-rocket-seem-to-be-working-well-so-what-about-the-landers/

@Eliza I would characterize it like this:

People are betting with faith in Isaacman to turn the situation around - he has committed to a 2028 landing.

Probably the US could still beat China with an early 2029 landing, maybe even a late one. Until recently China had been pretty coy about whether its 2030 goal was by the end of or before - however this is now firming up as before

https://www.cmse.gov.cn/xwzx/202602/t20260227_57278.html#:~:text=2026%E5%B9%B4%EF%BC%8C%E8%AE%A1%E5%88%92%E5%AE%9E%E6%96%BD2,%E6%96%B0%E7%9A%84%E6%9B%B4%E5%A4%A7%E8%B4%A1%E7%8C%AE%E3%80%82

@JoshuaWilkes It's unclear to me if China's 2030 is actually realistic though. It might be like NASA's 2024 moon landing targets.

@Mqrius I think it will be more like the Russian moon landing program during Apollo, had steam as long as they had a chance of beating the USA, and subsequently totally lost interest.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen if you can set up a market that probes this opinion I will happily bet a lot against you on it

@Mqrius unclear to everyone because we don't get to see the workings and any setbacks. But there have been quite a lot of tests announced as success that suggest it's not slipping (again caveat that we don't really know if those were late).

My sense is that by 2021 we very clearly understood that the US was not going to hit anywhere close to 2024.

@JoshuaWilkes There you go:

https://manifold.markets/JussiVilleHeiskanen/artemis-program-lunar-landing-succe?r=SnVzc2lWaWxsZUhlaXNrYW5lbg

Artemis program lunar landing success discourages chinese moon landing ambitions?

95% chance. Resolves YES if Artemis lands on moon before Chinese human boots on the lunar surface, AND Chinese do not land on lunar surface within 2 years OR immediately totally shift focus to another solar body for astronaut landings. Resolves NO if Chinese land before Artemis OR within 2 years of Artemis human lunar landing Chinese replicate the feat. Market will be extended as necessary but resolves once clarity. Sources will be official communications of the relevant national space agencies or eminently reliable reporting.

I made it 69%, you're all welcome.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/08/after-recent-tests-china-appears-likely-to-beat-the-united-states-back-to-the-moon/

I think title should say "a person" rather than "people"

@calderknight fair point

If the CNSA keeps it low profile enough until it's about a year or so out, and USA will keep "burocrating" their moon mission along, then sure China could be first. It's not easy to hide a moon rocket though.

I also suspect they want to do something objectively useful there (e.g. mining preparations, or science), so that might cause delays. They are not Russia in the Cold War, they will play it reasonably safe, sure and well thought out. Just like their current capsule is a reworked Soyuz, somewhat larger and things are swapped. They're not the very first to the moon, so no hurry.

@HenkPoley

There are obviously things we would expect to know about a US launch that China will keep undisclosed for a lot longer, but overall they are being relatively open about their plans. Certainly at the moment there is no suggestion that their moon rockets will be hidden.

https://twitter.com/CNSpaceflight/status/1663376891875835905?s=20

@JoshuaWilkes Yes, I meant more like if they go out and say "We will beat the USA in going back to the moon. China numba one, USA second!!1!", then the USA will beat them. That is how the US culture is, if someone taunts you, you come out first. Current US moon efforts seem to be a bit bureaucratic, so there will be delays if they don't step up.

@HenkPoley 😆 I guess it's too late now for them 🫣 Depending on if this catches on: "NASA administrator, Bill Nelson says that the USA is currently in a space race with China" https://twitter.com/tobyliiiiiiiiii/status/1688980102762172416