This market resolves YES if China August 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 80 tonnes.

What is being measured: China monthly Sm2O3 export volume (GACC data) for the month ending August 2026, settled 2 months later to allow for GACC reporting lag.

YES if: China Sm2O3 monthly export volume >= 80 tonnes for August 2026 NO if: Export volume below 80 tonnes

Resolution sources (priority order):

GACC (General Administration of Customs, China) monthly trade data — HS 2846.90

Asian Metal — China rare earth export monthly tracker (asianmetal.com)

SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) — China REE export data

Fastmarkets / Metal Bulletin — China samarium export commentary