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For those who were unhappy I included Elliot's bet, Marcus has confirmed he's been paid, so if it makes you feel any better this would have resolved YES anyway.

https://x.com/mhutter42/status/2009468753680191794

Follow-up for the rest of the bets:

@draaglom you seem very confident, how come?

@retr0id (to be clear I'm very certain budden will lose at least one bet, but I have a feeling he may dispute or otherwise try to wriggle out of paying)

@retr0id observe who is betting yes and at what price

@draaglom well I guess now I have to ask the same question to @MarcusAbramovitch

@draaglom Yeah it's cool that three of the four ppl who bet against Budden are here betting YES. It looks like Macus joined Manifold for that purpose!

But do any of them actually know the guy? My understanding was that the entire story happened on X, purely in response to Buddens anouncements. So the participants wouldn't have much privileged information.

@retr0id the Marcus in this story is @MarcusHutter.

@retr0id btw I agree with your sentiments re budden, but this market is ∃(bet),paid(bet) not ∀(bet),paid(bet)

@AhronMaline I was referring to Marcus Abramovitch intentionally, he is betting in this market

@retr0id so is Marcus Hutter!

@AhronMaline hah true I didn't spot that

@retr0id Well I’ve already won my bet and been paid. I’m just waiting for the market to resolve at this point.

@ElliotGlazer thanks for telling us!

Any more details?

@ElliotGlazer wait you had a bet too? I’m confused, that’s not one of the four listed bets?

@bens

Sure enough, he's trying to move the goalposts on the bet with Hutter:

https://x.com/davidmbudden/status/2005695044809089410?s=20

If you hadn't included the $1000 bet, I'd be buying NO real hard now

What happens in the scenario that he loses and donates some amount (either full or partial) to malaria nets but never transfers any to the winning parties?

@KyleY I don't see how unrelated donations are pertinent to the bet

@IsaacKing my opinion watching this unfold is that there’s a maybe a 25% chance he says something like, “ok you guys are so unreasonable and ridiculous, I’ll admit I ‘lost’ and I’ll to make donations in your names to charities of your choice while I revise the proof. All in good fun and we’ll make the world a better place. 🙂”

Hmmm @IsaacKing maybe I'd recommend leaving the initial terms of the market? Paying off a 10k bet is very different than a 1k bet, tbh, and I was willing to bet on the original 3 bets, but not any subsequent future bets that David made.

@bens @IsaacKing I agree, this change is unfair to NO holders

@bens fwiw I would have been willing to make the YES investments I have even if Isaac imposed a "$10k+ bets only" clause. That being said, it would be worth asking if any YES holders did so under awareness or prediction that David would involve himself him in smaller-money wagers.

@ElliotGlazer the description says "I may also at my discretion add in any other similar bets"; I was not expecting much smaller ones to count as "similar"

Yeah in retrospect maybe I should have included a minimum, but it does seem pretty similar to me. Same subject matter, and it's an amount large enough to be meaningful to most people.

@IsaacKing Very well; it's your discretion after all.