Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?
1
1kṀ10
Dec 31
50%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the close date, a party to the Collective Security Treaty formally invokes Article 4 of the treaty and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, or at least one of its member states, acts upon the request.

This market will otherwise resolve NO at the close date.

Close date

This market is set to close at 21:00 UTC on 31 December 2026.

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