Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
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1kṀ16kDec 31
Anthropic79%
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OpenAI’s financial situation suggests an IPO will be necessary to fund announced spending. Anthropic is heading for a much earlier breakeven. Both companies are rumoured to be considering an IPO. Who will be first? Resolves the day of the first IPO. If there is no IPO, it doesn’t resolve.
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Will Anthropic IPO by….?
Will Anthropic and OpenAI IPO in the same month?
14% chance
1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.
31% chance
Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a higher initial share price upon each of their IPOs?
Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?
69% chance
Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?
21% chance
When will OpenAI hold its IPO?
2/3/27
When will Anthropic IPO?
11/19/26
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
54% chance
OpenAI IPO before 2028?
88% chance
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Bankers expect Anthropic to list before OpenAI due to market preference for its focus.
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Will Anthropic IPO by….?
Will Anthropic and OpenAI IPO in the same month?
14% chance
1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.
31% chance
Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a higher initial share price upon each of their IPOs?
Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?
69% chance
Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?
21% chance
When will OpenAI hold its IPO?
2/3/27
When will Anthropic IPO?
11/19/26
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
54% chance
OpenAI IPO before 2028?
88% chance